CHAPTER II: Export of Agricultural Commodities 

I. Export of Agricultural Products, 

2.7. Coffee

a) Export

- 2022 is considered a relatively successful year for Vietnam's coffee industry when output and selling prices both reached the highest level in recent years, thereby continuing holds the number two position in the world in coffee exports after Brazil. According to data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports in 2022 reached 1.78 million tons, worth 4 billion USD, up 13.8% in volume and 32% in value compared to 2021. The average export price for the whole year 2022 reached about 2,282 USD / ton, up 16% compared to 2021.

 By type: Robusta coffee exports accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for 76% of export turnover in 2022, reaching 1.35 million tons, worth $ 3 billion, up 14% in volume and 34% in value compared to 2021. Arabica coffee accounted for about 6.4%, reaching 113 thousand tons, worth more than 250 million USD, up 3.7% in volume and 56.3% in value compared to 2021. Exports of processed coffee products accounted for 16%, reaching 640 million USD, up 18% compared to 2021.

About export markets: In 2022, Vietnam's coffee exports to major markets such as the EU, Japan, UK, South Korea,... all increased compared to 2021 due to consumer demand recovering after being strongly affected by the Covid-19 epidemic. Coffee exports to the EU market accounted for the largest proportion with nearly 40% of total exports in 2022, reaching 1.49 billion USD, up about 45% in value compared to 2021. In particular, coffee export turnover to some countries increased sharply such as: to Belgium increased by 130.5%; Spain increased by 90.9%; to the Netherlands increased by 170.9%; to France increased by 104.6%; Portugal increased by 43.5%...

Coffee exports to the Japanese market reached 277.6 million USD, up 22.6% in value compared to 2021.  Coffee exports to the US market reached 305 million USD, up 11.6% in value compared to 2021. Coffee exported to this market is mainly raw Robusta beans, not yet of high value. In addition, some other markets, although of insignificant value, also have a sharp increase in coffee imports from Vietnam compared to 2021 such as: Russia increased by 26.6%, reaching 93 thousand tons; Britain increased by 51.2%, reaching 40.4 thousand tons; South Korea increased by 2.7%, reaching 35.1 thousand tons; Mexico increased by 2,378.3%, reaching 25.7 thousand tons.

b) Assess and identify

Vietnam has ended the coffee season 2021-2022 with the highest export volume in the past 4 years and the highest turnover value in the past 10 years. This result comes from the fact that coffee prices in the market reached the highest level since 2011. Besides, coffee demand has expanded significantly beyond the EU, US and Japan markets. The North American, Asia-Pacific and European markets are the world's largest coffee consumers. In Asia-Pacific, Japan leads the market, followed by China and South Korea. For the Chinese market, instant coffee, processed coffee is occupying a large market share thanks to the convenience of use. Demand for coffee in China is growing at an average rate of 15% per year.

According to the latest report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production in the 2022-2023 crop year is forecast to increase by 6.6 million bags while consumption is only increased by more than 800,000 bags. The world is expected to have an oversupply of about 4.8 million bags of coffee in the 2022-2023 crop year. The USDA also forecasts that world coffee exports will fall by 3 million bags in the 2022-2023 crop year, to 116.1 million bags.  Vietnam's production is forecast to reach 30.2 million bags in the 2022-2023 crop year, down 1.4 million bags compared to the 2021-2022 season, with more than 95% of production being robusta coffee. Vietnam's coffee exports in the 2022-2023 crop year are also forecast to decrease by 1.5 million bags, to 24.5 million bags due to reduced production.

However, robusta coffee has an advantage because instead of completely cutting back on the use of coffee to save spending in difficult economic times, consumers are tending to shift from enjoying at the store to brewing at home, in accordance with the price and characteristics of robusta beans. This is an advantage for Vietnam's coffee industry, which accounts for nearly 38% of global robusta production and is also the world's 3rd largest exporter of instant coffee.